As has become his habit lately, in a recent opinion piece, Newt Gingrich presents the current polling numbers for the Republican presidential nomination race as though they are infallible. He once again fails to acknowledge the inherent volatility and uncertainty of early flash polls. He should know better.
It’s important to note, as I have done here, that polls taken at this stage of a primary often do not accurately reflect what voters will decide in several months. Over 100 days remain until the Iowa Caucus.
In California, my son’s parents were at my grandson’s birthday party last weekend. One of the uncles, I was told, was a Trump fan. When I asked him about Ron DeSantis he replied that he knew nothing about DeSantis.
What makes this noteworthy? What do you think he will say when he is surveyed? As I’ve said, DeSantis is a Trump fan, so it would be expected that he tell a pollster that. My larger point is that DeSantis still isn’t a familiar name to many Republican voters.
The primary race is still a long way off, despite Newt’s predictions, which are based on polls.
There are also several reasons that these polls might not be reliable indicators of the future. First, the opinions of voters can change as they gain more information about candidates and their policies. They may also view their performance in local town halls and debates.
By the way, candidates that live and die by the votes can sometimes be the same.
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: YouGov (B+)
(D) Biden 45% [+2]
(R) Trump 40% [-4]
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 27, 2023
I believe in the free market, which heavily relies on data. The political markets are no exception. A greater amount of data can lead to a change in public opinion. The dynamics of a race may also change dramatically due to unforeseeable events, policy changes, or scandals.
It’s impossible to know what will happen during a primary election that could have a significant impact on the outcome of the race.
Individuals may change their candidate support as the primary campaign advances based on changing circumstances or new information. We can expect that public opinion will change as more information becomes available to the political market.
If we only use flash polls to measure the performance of Ron DeSantis’ campaign, then it is impossible to know what works and what doesn’t. If the only goal of the DeSantis campaign is to be at the top of national polls then it is clear that the campaign is not working.
If that’s not the DeSantis campaign’s only objective and instead the goal is to solidify ground support, the grassroots turnout model in Iowa then we won’t be able to tell if it’s working until at least another 90 days.
Ron DeSantis is a man with a proven track record. He has demonstrated his commitment and ability to work on issues that are important to Republican voters. He has navigated through many challenges, and he has championed policies aligned with the Republican Party’s values and priorities.
It is also important to note that DeSantis has a solid base of support from Republican voters.
Team DeSantis is growing stronger on X. So many great accounts and all of them, even smaller ones are growing at a rapid pace. People are hungry for the truth and an alternative to the Trump clown show. DeSantis provides that.
Keep up the great work!
— Unfiltered☢Boss (@Unfilteredboss1) September 27, 2023
The primary campaign is dynamic and candidates still have the chance to gain momentum and build up support as the race moves forward. It is nothing more than election interference to suggest that the race has already been over for 110 days.
Newt Gingrich’s shortsightedness in relying on only early polling results to determine the viability of the DeSantis Campaign is unworthy of a historian. With all due respect to Newt Gingrich, this race remains fluid and candidates like Ron DeSantis have plenty of opportunities to win over Republican voters.