Wow, what a day for Ukraine War News. One small crack was seen in Moscow. Ukraine is at risk of losing everything if it hangs on to the east too long.
It looked as though Putin was looking for an exit just hours ago. However, the reports from Maripul in Ukraine’s East suggest that bad Ukrainian decision-making could quickly turn things around.
War news is like being in an automobile accident, and you can’t get used to whiplash.
Let’s start by going to Moscow, where a top advisor says he can’t understand Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and that many of us are depressed.
Sky News spoke with Andrey Kortunov on Tuesday. He stated that he believed that a military operation wasn’t possible. It was impossible.”
He said that his advice was to make a ceasefire the number one priority, given the current situation.
According to The Daily Mail, Putin has “settled his group advisors” to a small number of “generals and friends” and “spies.”
Kortunov, a long-serving Kremlin hand, has been effectively barred from lending any voice to Russia’s ruling system.
It’s no wonder he went on Sky News like nobody is listening at home.
The situation in Ukraine’s eastern regions is not as optimistic. While the two largest cities of Ukraine, Kyiv (and Kharkiv) continue to resist rocket barrages and artillery, it’s still possible for them to hold their ground.
Maripul, the port city, is effectively under siege. Large numbers of Ukrainian fighters have been left behind.
Knowing when to stop and regroup is an important part of fighting any war, even one that ends in a stalemate.
What if — when? If Maripul falls, it could lead to an even larger number of Ukrainian fighters trapped in the east.
Many ethnic Russians live in the area. In some areas, they make up the majority of residents.
Bill Roggio is the editor of The Long War Journal and reports to Daily Mail that Russian forces have “tied down Ukrainian troops that are required elsewhere” in eastern Ukraine.
If Ukraine is able to keep the fight going for as long as it can, cracks in the Kremlin will continue to grow like the one we see today. If Putin regains the upper hand, that crack will not matter.
Ukraine could easily lose their moral victories and a large number of fighters if they don’t act quickly. The first at Maripul and then the whole east.
Roggio continues: It is more important than a few setbacks that Russian forces have driven 70 miles into contested territory in a short period and are now on the outskirts of the capital.
This is not an indication of a poorly organized, disorganized, or failed offensive.
That one I have to disagree with in part. Because of the failure to implement Putin’s coup de main strike against Kyiv, the offensive was ordered quickly. It is clear that these troops were to be sent into a country already morally defeated, judging by the logistical and confusion on the Russian side.
Russia’s logistical tether is ending at 70 miles. It’s likely that the 40-mile-long Russian convoy, which is supposed to surround and cut off Kyiv will be extremely exposed to partisans.
However, none of the problems with Russia’s Army are going to be of any importance if Ukraine does not show a little more bravado or military sense.
Keep your faith in Kyiv. But, at some point, moral victories must give way to operational necessity.
This means that everyone must be removed from the east, and the emphasis should be placed on the defense of the western half.
Could this be a de facto division of the country?
It’s almost certainly can.