There is a belief among the right and possibly some independents that Joe Manchin cheated when he reached a deal to work with Chuch Schumer on the Inflation Reduction Act. This bill would be known by virtually everyone in the media as “the Senate’s climate bill”, since no one believes it will lower inflation.
A new Economist/YouGov poll shows that Americans may be shifting their opinion about Manchin to the point that Manchin might consider selling his house if he doesn’t.
YouGov Poll: Joe Manchin Favorability before and after “Inflation Reduction Act”
BEFORE(July 20, RV)
AFTER (Aug 7-9, RV)
Indie: -26% pic.twitter.com/dT405k4iI2
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 11, 2022
Before I get too deep into this, I want to share some caveats. YouGov’s polling isn’t always reliable. They’ve been outliers lately on things such as the generic ballot. Their use of online polling makes me suspicious. Their polling is based on registered voters rather than likely voters, which is not a reliable metric.
This poll is not just for West Virginians. Manchin is a popular figure in West Virginia. He has always been able to raise enough money to support his family back in West Virginia and has managed to remain moderate enough to keep Republicans out of the state.
Despite all of that, it is important to note that the poll’s numbers are significant and should be considered.
A drop of 13 points in approval is significant. Even more alarming is the 16-point increase in disapproval. His disapproval among voters 65 years and older jumped to 61% in the latest poll. He is also underwater with Hispanic and black voters, even though almost half of those polled do not know or have no opinion.
Although it isn’t good, it’s indicative of Americans’ dissatisfaction with Manchin more than the state suddenly turning against him. Manchin’s high-profile role as a swing voter in many of the Democratic agendas in Congress makes him a household name. He knows that his face is stamped on the climate bill. If this general American attitude starts to seep into West Virginia, it could spell doom for his chances of being reelected.
It’s possible that he is aware of all this information and is planning to retire from public office (and transition to the private sector). He doesn’t have anything to lose if that is the case. This makes it more likely that he will go all-out progressive. The climate bill could be the final item on the Democrats’ agenda. If November goes according to plan, Democrats won’t have another chance until after Manchin wins the next election. If he does decide to run.