The 2023 elections have been another disappointment for Republicans. Kentucky and Ohio produced results that should have the GOP wondering what changes they need to make before the 2024 elections.
Despite this, there were some positives. In Virginia, Republicans were surprisingly strong despite not winning the legislature. The headlines today may not reflect this, but the data shows that the Glenn Youngkin-led GOP in Virginia has performed better than expected.
The Republicans have won all seats in districts with a Biden rating of +9.
In Virginia tonight, Republicans won every Trump seat and single digits Biden seat.
However, they needed 3 double digit Biden seats in the House and 1 in the Senate for a trifecta. Proved to be too tough for them and Dems narrowly win both chambers.
— Political Election Projections (@tencor_7144) November 8, 2023
Some on the right are avoiding this information because they dislike Youngkin and see him as a danger to their party wing. They are misleading the public.
It’s a fact that the Virginia legislature has always been a longshot because Democrats redistricted their districts just before Youngkin became governor. It is true that Republicans were very aggressive in their efforts on Tuesday, and they could be considered to have overperformed. This is a word that has been rarely used in the past few election cycles to describe Republicans.
The electoral realities of each state will eventually come into play. Youngkin’s victory in 2021 may have been stunning, but it wasn’t a new baseline. Virginia is a state of blue. This is due to the fact that its northern part is populated by federal employees, who are a largely liberal demographic.
Virginia may be too far for Republicans, but we did see positive trends. Youngkin shouldn’t lose that. I don’t know what that means for Youngkin going forward. He may run for U.S. Senate or even for President in 2028. But to say that his political career is over because he failed to pull off a miraculous in a blue-state state, would be dishonest.
If Republicans replicated the Virginia strategy last night, they would win by a wide margin in 2024. Many right-wing commentators and influencers will not tell you that because they are interested in other things. But the numbers speak for them. You are doing well if you can win every district, even those with a double-digit Democrat lead.