One of the caucuses of Senate Democrats has decided to not run for reelection in anticipation of what will be a difficult map for them in 2024.
Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow declared Thursday morning that she will not seek re-election. This could be a red flag for Democrats, who see 2024 to be a very difficult year for their party.
While a handful of seats were considered swing seats in 2022, most analysts agreed back before the midterms that the 2024 map is just “brutal” for the party.
The caucus is working to increase its 50-50 majority in this fall’s election cycle, but it is also preparing for a fight against the GOP’s 10 seats in the next cycle. Many of these seats are located in red and purple areas. In this context, Chuck Schumer’s eight caucus members are deliberating whether they should run again. Some of them hail from states that could be lost to the GOP if the incumbent loses.
According to statements and interviews from 22 of 23 current Democrats, several senators are still waiting to see how the midterms will play out before making any decisions. Some incumbents may be happier if they can hold the majority in this difficult environment, which could make them more open to running for reelection.
Some of the people deciding whether to run are in safe seats like Ben Cardin from Maryland and Tom Carper from Delaware. Some are perennial battlegrounds like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester from Montana, who both survived the 2018 midterm cycle, which saw four of their colleagues from red or swing states.
However, it is surprising that Stabenow decided to not run since Michigan was not expected to be as swing as the other states. However, the performance of Republicans in Michigan in November could have led to cause for concern.
Interview with Detroit News: Stabenow reveals that she is inspired and motivated by the energy of young voters and activists.
BREAKING: Michigan’s U.S. Sen. Stabenow tells me she won’t seek reelection in 2024 https://t.co/wrNRPljaUw via @detroitnews
— Melissa Nann Burke (@nannburke) January 5, 2023
The Detroit News was granted an exclusive interview with the Lansing Democrat. She explained that she was motivated by November’s election results. She saw the “energy” among young voters, and a new generation of Michigan Democratic leaders made her feel confident that she could “pass the torch” as a Democratic successor.
Stabenow is the No. Stabenow is the No. 3 Democrat in Senate leadership.
“It’s important to be able to open doors for others again and pass on the torch. She added that she feels like this is the right time for me and Michigan.
“It has been an incredible honor to serve Michigan at both the county and state levels. It’s also an immense honor to have the opportunity to make a difference in people’s lives with my policy team and the best staff team on the Hill.
Democrat Sen. Debbie Stabenow (AP/Reuters Feed Library)
Although it is difficult to predict whether the GOP will win the seat, it is clear that 2022 was a disastrous year for the Senate party. To win Michigan, the GOP will have to perform far better than they did in November. They will also need to field a strong candidate. There will be many factors that play into this potential fight.
There are two weaknesses that were evident in the November election: candidate quality and funding. The strength of the GOP’s presidential candidate for 2024 will be another factor. To maximize voter turnout, it will be crucial to be able to motivate voters to vote.
Are Michigan’s elections really on the horizon? It’s difficult to say at the moment. The potential is there, but the GOP must work hard.
