According to Decision Desk Headquarters, the tide could be turning in favor of Republicans when it comes time to retake control of the Senate.
Political forecasting and election results website, Friday announced that Republicans now have a 50.4 percent chance of winning the Senate with 51 seats in the model. This is the first time since its inception that Republicans have had better odds.
🚨 Republicans are favored to win control of the U.S. Senate for the first time since we released our 2022 Elections Forecast. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 50.4% chance of control, and our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D).https://t.co/UHhMBpQqvL
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 28, 2022
This is due to the fact that Republican Mehmet Oz has a 53.1 percent chance to win, compared to Democrat John Fetterman’s 46.9 percent in the toss-up Pennsylvania race. The poor performance of Fetterman in a debate earlier this week attracted widespread attention and may have worked in Oz’s favor.
Mehmet Oz (R) is favored over John Fetterman (D) in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race for the first time. Oz now has a 53.1% chance of winning, but the race remains a toss-up. https://t.co/zGQ6WQkiFL
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 28, 2022
Decision DeskHQ also ranks Georgia and Nevada as toss-ups. North Carolina and Ohio are ranked as leaning Republican. Arizona and New Hampshire, on the other hand, are ranked as leaning Democrat.
This is a positive sign for Republicans. There are still 11 days to present their case to voters.
FiveThirtyEight estimates that Democrats have a 52 percent chance of winning the Senate. RealClearPolitics predicts, however, that Republicans will win three seats and a 53-47 majority.
Predictions are not a reliable tool, but they can be a valuable tool for citizens and politicos to see the current political climate. Politico recently changed their Arizona Senate race status from “toss-up” to reflect the fact that Arizona Senator Mark Kelly is having trouble maintaining a strong lead over Republican Blake Masters who is a political outsider.
