Poll Shows GOP Faces Headwinds in Key Swing States in 2024

There will be many polls in the run-up to the presidential election of 2024 asking Americans questions about issues and candidates. Swing states could be key in determining whether Republicans win in 2024. A new NBC News survey shows that there is a lot of consensus on certain issues, such as the southern border. However, on other social issues, like LGBTQ and abortion, Republicans will need to do some untraditional campaigning. The poll asked all registered voters as well as Republican primary voters about 11 issues and proposals on which many GOP presidential candidates are campaigning. This poll gives a good idea of the issues that a majority of Americans care about and their potential support.

Both the primary GOP voters and the group of all voters seem to be focused on the ongoing crisis at the southern border. The polled respondents believe that the U.S. Military should be deployed to the border to stop the flow of illegal drugs. The poll found that 55 percent of respondents and 86 percent of GOP primary voters would support a candidate who supported the military on the border. Candidates who support putting the military at the border received the highest response. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has recently unveiled his plan for dealing with the southern border. This plan included the use of deadly force to stop drug smuggling by drug cartels.

Both groups of voters find it difficult to agree on a single issue, which is why Democrats and the left are so keen to promote any reductions to Social Security or Medicare to reduce the federal deficit. DeSantis supported raising the retirement age from 65 to 70 and privatizing Social Security, which was surprising coming from someone who represents a state that has a high senior citizen population. As a presidential hopeful, DeSantis has pledged not to touch Social Security and Medicare. Only 12 percent, or all voters, and 19 percent (or GOP primary voters) said that they would vote for candidates who want to change these entitlements.

DeSantis would do himself a favor by ending this position. “Threatening to penalize or financially hurt businesses that make statements about LGBTQ and other issues they do not agree with” is also not a very popular one. This could be a sign that those who oppose Disney’s stance on LGBTQ issues will make their opinions known through their wallets, just as they did in the Bud Light case.

All voters, including GOP primary voters, are not in favor of continuing financial support for the war in Ukraine. All voters polled said that they would not support a candidate if they supported continued U.S. taxpayer funding for the conflict.

In 2024, Republicans might want to focus on social issues. In the GOP primary, 76 percent of GOP voters said that they would support a candidate against K-8 discussions about sexual orientation and gender identities in class. They would also ban transgender teenagers from receiving puberty blockers. These numbers are 46 and 41 respectively for all voters.

Most interesting were the results of abortion. Just 52 percent of GOP primary voters said they would back a candidate who supported a ban on abortion for six weeks. Six-week bans did not resonate well with voters in general elections, particularly those who live in swing states which are crucial to a Republican win. Only 31 percent of these swing state voters are likely to support a candidate that supports a 6-week abortion ban. Meanwhile, 55 percent will not support a candidate that favors a 6-week ban. DeSantis signed a similar bill into law recently in Florida. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott also expressed support for such a ban but is open to stricter legislation.

A Gallup poll conducted in January of this year showed that Americans believed the biggest issue facing the country was the government itself — and poor leadership within the government. But results from a previous poll taken earlier this year could also be where Republicans wish to focus their attention in 2024. Gallup’s January poll revealed that Americans believed the government and its leadership was the most important issue facing the country. This could be an indication that voters care about individual issues but also want solutions. In swing states, Republican candidates have the opportunity to address issues that voters are concerned about and offer real solutions. This might work.