According to some pollsters, the Republican leadership in the generic ballot is shrinking. However, other polls make it difficult to predict how many Americans will vote to support someone who supports the Biden agenda.
Rasmussen also found that 65 percent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, an increase of three points over a week ago. This was before President Biden’s 60 Minutes interview. This was a disaster. President Biden threatened U.S. troops to war against China if Taiwan invaded. To convince Americans it was not as bad, he used month-over-month numbers. Anyone who has ever shopped at a grocery store knows this.
Biden’s approval rating has not changed despite the terrible withdrawal from Afghanistan. 62% believed it was heading in the wrong direction. 43% of likely voters approve of President Biden’s job performance, according to the Daily Presidential Tracking poll. Only 25% of voters strongly agree. His net approval rating stands at -19. This is the same rating as September 19, 2013.
The generic ballot is shrinking and more voters vote, but it is hard to believe that Democrats can fill the gap. President Biden is the leader of the party, and he is setting the direction for the country.
The New York Times already questions whether most polls will be as accurate as they were in 2016 and 2020. Cohn found that the model he used did not account enough for the error in both cases.
The apparent Democratic edge in Senate races in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Ohio would evaporate. To take the chamber, Republicans would need any two of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, or Pennsylvania. With Democrats today well ahead in Pennsylvania and Arizona, the fight for control of the chamber would come down to very close races in Nevada and Georgia.
It would be fiercely contested to control the Senate, no matter who is preferred. Republican control seems to be a foregone conclusion.
Cohn’s negative news is that Democrats are losing ground in Arizona and Pennsylvania, according to Trafalgar Group. Cohn, however, is still holding a 1.2% lead over Blake Masters (his Republican challenger). It is hard to believe Masters doesn’t have enough support from Lake.
Trafalgar shows the close race for Pennsylvania’s Senate seat between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Ol. Fetterman is more involved in public events, and voters are starting to notice that his double-digit lead has now disappeared.
Trafalgar has been a reliable pollster for many cycles. It rates North Carolina at +3 for Republican In North Carolina’s Senate Race, and +5 for Ohio. This suggests that these leads may have disappeared in these states. Trafalgar, two additional pollsters, and Trafalgar also rate North Carolina as +3 for Republicans in North Carolina’s Senate Race and +5 for Ohio. RCP average has Republican Adam Lexalt leading Nevada by 1 point.
The most likely voters unhappy with the direction of the nation are the reason why all Senate candidates should tie their opponents with President Biden’s unpopular agenda.
One grizzled Democrat strategist once stated that “it’s not about the economy stupid.” Biden’s energy and economic policies have bankrupted middle America. Republicans need to remember this for the next 49 days.
